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I expect to have a one-time large payment of taxable income in the fourth quarter. Do I have to make an estimated tax payment for just the fourth quarter?

Yes, if you meet the general criteria for making estimated tax payments:

  1.  You expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for the current tax year, after subtracting your withholding and credits, and
  1. You expect your withholding and credits to be less than the smaller of: 90 percent of the tax to be shown on your current year's tax return, or 100 percent of the tax shown on your prior year's tax return (that covers a full 12 months).