I expect to have a one-time large payment of taxable income in the fourth quarter. Do I have to make an estimated tax payment for just the fourth quarter?

Yes, if you meet the general criteria for making estimated tax payments:

1.  You expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for the current tax year, after subtracting your withholding and credits, and

2. You expect your withholding and credits to be less than the smaller of 90 percent of the tax to be shown on your current year's tax return or 100 percent of the tax shown on your prior year's tax return (that covers a full 12 months).